33 Expert Picks
This has not been a particularly high-scoring series but still would have cleared this 5.5 "total" in two of the first three games. Will see if Jim Montgomery continues his goalie rotation on the Boston side, though that would mean sitting Jeremy Swayman, who won Games 1 and 3 and has allowed only seven goals in his last 15 periods vs. Toronto. Linus Ullmark has comparable overall numbers, so Montgomery might well stick to his pattern, but there is too much firepower on the ice for these teams to play another 3-2 game. Auston Matthews and the Leafs have scored only six goals, and with some real urgency tonight look for Toronto to push this scoreline to six or more. Play Bruins-Leafs "Over"
Curiously, Boston continues to have its struggles at home in the playoffs, losing Game 2 at TD Garden vs. the underdog Heat, and now has to go on the road to regain home edge against the no-Jimmy Butler Miami. One wonders, however, if the Celtics' recent inconsistencies (which surfaced late in the regular season) might suggest Boston has simply gone flat, Before going there, however, will note that both previous games in this series cleared 204, and each side has been trending hard to the "over" in recent weeks (Celtics "over" 14-5 last 19; Heat "over" 11-3 last 14). Play Celtics-Heat "Over"
The Lakers display in game three featured poor play from their guards Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell. Russell did not score and Reaves padded his stats thanks to several late field goals. Expect the Lakers to tinker with their lineup, which should leave some opportunities for Rui Hachimura. Hachimura has been quiet in the series averaging nine points less than he did in the regular season. Take his over tonight as he finally has a decent game from the field.
The Dodgers have won seven of nine against the Blue Jays and their red hot coming in with the five-game win streak, their bat started heating up. They exploded for 12 runs yesterday. Tyler Glasnow has been almost perfect, four wins one loss, and he comes off his best outing with seven shutout innings in a 10-nothing win over the Mets. I'm on the Dodgers to win.
Oakland's starting pitcher, JP Sears, has a 4.25 FIP and a 30.4% ground-ball rate. He prefers to pitch to contact, with only 16 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched and is coming off a season-high seven strikeouts against the Yankees. The Orioles offense is expected to perform well, as they rank third in OPS (.800) against left-handed pitchers. Baltimore ranks 12th in the fewest strikeouts per game.
The Mariners have been red-hot with eight wins in their last 10, but they're still the only MLB team to strike out more than 10 times per game. Slade Cecconi has just a 6.3 K/9 rate in the majors, which is why this line is so low, but that's based on just 33 innings. He's a 9.2 K/9 rate pitcher in 10 times the innings at the minor-league level, including recording at least five Ks in all four Triple-A starts this year. I like a value play on his Over in the best matchup possible at the MLB level.
Jose Soriano has piled up 19 Ks in 15 IP over three starts, and he gets another high-K team today in the Twins (9.6 per game). But even with that being the case, seven Ks is a lot to ask for. The Twins offense has been running hot with five straight games scoring at least five runs, while Soriano's control has been questionable with eight walks and one HBP in his last two starts. I also don't think we know what his MLB K rate will settle at after pitching as a reliever last year and making just 11 pro starts since 2019 heading into this season. I think he needs to get to six innings to have a reasonable shot at seven Ks.
We're not asking Derrick White to do anything he hasn't already. White has eclipsed this number in both games against Miami. I understand the books adjusting for a road game, but Miami actually plays worse defense at home and allows 2% high 3-point percentage. He's had three recent single digit games which I think is adjusting this line, but before that was on a nine game streak to this over. White historically doesn't have issues on the road and I don't anticipate it beginning tonight.
Aaron Civale has seemingly been running hot with a 10.1 K/9 rate that's well above his career mark of 8.2. But it's also significantly down from his post-trade performance with the Rays last year, when he struck out 58 batters in just 45.1 innings. He's hit six Ks in three of five starts this year and gets the awful White Sox offense coming off a rare productive game. The market expects him to get to six innings (-142) and at this point it should count on a strikeout per inning as a Rays pitcher, but it's not.
The Brewers have run very hot in one-run games at 7-1, but they've also lost by more than one run in just seven of their 25 games so far. The Yankees have won by multiple runs nine times in 27 games as they've also been hot in one-run results with a 9-3 record. The Brewers have the better offense (5.36 runs per game and a 115 OPS+ vs. 4.37 runs per game and a 106 OPS+), and Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is due for regression as I don't believe he's pitched to the level of a 2.70 ERA with a 22:13 K:BB ratio. I like a full unit on the run line and half-unit on the money line in this one.
This has turned into total one way traffic and with that first road win under their belts I don't think the Wolves let up here. MIN defensive prowess is a real problem for the Suns, and the Suns lack of quality and depth bigs who play big beyond their starting center if a problem, too. Wolves can run when they want and win in half court when they want and rotation up front leading to 50+ points in paint. ANT provides instant offense and Suns without Grayson get a lot more predictable to defend. MIN up 156-110 in paint in series. KD (3rd straight -20 game) can't take over by himself. MIN won't give away easy three-ball looks; Booker not getting enough shots off
The market isn't fully buying Mitchell Parker's success in his first two starts, but I don't see why this line is juiced to the Under. He threw 57 of 73 pitches for strikes while blanking the Astros for seven innings and racking up eight Ks in his last outing, and now he gets to face the offense with the worst OPS+ in the league that strikes out about eight times per game. On top of that, Parker has a 11.4 K/9 rate in his minor-league career, so his baseline for Ks should be relatively high. Once he gets more MLB action under his belt, the market will realize this line should've been 5.5 Ks.
I thought this series had major sweep potential going in and figured these games could get sideways. With the LAC bringing their A game in the opener I took a step back but this now looks like the series I expected, albeit a little lower scoring. That plays in the Mavs hands. LAC was the 23rd ranked team in D ranking from ASG on, and Kawhi isn't close to being healthy and this quick turnaround on road is a problem. Chippy series favors Dallas and Mavs content to win games comfortably under 200 points. Luka can negate Harden, Mavs back to loading up in twos in the paint (bet they top 52 paint points from Game 3) and Kyrie finally found touch G 3.
The A's took the first game of the series and have a better pitching matchup today, but I think it's a great spot for the Orioles to right the ship. JP Sears has excelled his last three starts thanks largely to allowing just six hits in 17.1 innings but that luck runs out against an offense that's third in runs per game and tied for first in OPS+. Cole Irvin is coming off his best start of the season and gets to face a team that's next to last in runs per game after scoring two or three times in eight straight. This feels like 5-6 runs for the O's and another 2-3 runs for the A's, reflective of their season averages.
The Nuggets will go for the sweep Saturday. They also won all three meetings against the Lakers during the regular season and swept them out of the playoffs last season. The Nuggets are not a team to take their foot off the gas with a 3-0 series lead. I don’t want to mess with the spread in an elimination game, but I think the Nuggets win, so I’ll pay the juice and take them on the moneyline.